The geopolitics of oil

Article from Malta Independent.

With China set to overtake the US in energy consumption within four years’ time and India and China likely to consume a little less than a third of our global energy within the next two decades, anyone thinking that the Gulf of Mexico tragedy will wipe oil exploration off the map will be naïve at best and gullible at worst.

On the other hand my biggest concern is that in spite of the environmental rape that took place in that area, I very much suspect that once time will have taken its toll, our memory lapses will start prevailing again, and sins of omission and commission in the environmental sector will continue to take place, recur and repeat themselves. Possibly at a bigger financial and environmental cost for us all.

While we must be experiencing what must be tantamount to the only comparable US oil disaster in recent years, the Exxon Valdez spill, I have purely by chance and by coincidence – well not really, I was enticed by some glowing reviews! – come across an excellent book called The Squeeze which is all about oil, money and greed in the 21st century. It is written by Tom Bower, an incisive author whose research is always astonishing. Over the years he has covered quite a number of sordid characters – from Klaus Barbie – the Butcher of Lyon, to Maxwell, Tiny Rowland and Fayed while also finding time to write about Blood Money – the Swiss, the Nazis and the Looted Billions together with Conrad and Lady Black.

This must be his most accomplished work to date and without wanting to it reminds me of the redoubtable author of The Seven Sisters, an old time favourite – the late Anthony Sampson.

The author begins with a double whammy. Struck as he was by the candour of the Vice President of one of America’s biggest oil companies when he asked him in passing in 2007 – Was George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq about oil?

According to the author, he replied – Absolutely, yes. Some argue that the ideological Cold War has been replaced by ‘resource wars.’

If Sampson left his indelible mark with his writings on the oil industry, Daniel Yergin’s The Prize was nothing short of ‘a magisterial description of oil’s influence on modern history.’

With tongue-in-cheek the author argues that this is not only his eighteenth book, but he also found that a career charting the lives of politicians, tycoons, murderers and charlatans is the perfect background to grappling with the intricacies of the oil industry.

In a somewhat fatalistic manner the author argues that there was nothing new in oil – only the players in each country were different!

We are told how in spite of often considering many sites, although the exploration business remained dependent on science, much remained beyond their control. He argues that ‘even the best geologists tended to deploy just three words – possibly, probably and regrettably.

What I found intriguing is that although written well ahead of the Gulf of Mexico incident the Gulf features prominently in many a chapter. As way back as 1996 the point was being made that everyone in the Gulf is making the same mistake. “We’re focusing on the geophysics. Companies X and Y are fixated by seismic tests. They’re too rigid. They’re forgetting about the geology...”

Rivals often accuse each other of looking at seismic images corrected by computers rather than at the rocks themselves.

It is ironic to read about how champagne and dinner were used to celebrate when a find of some one billion barrels of oil was made – the biggest ever discovery in the Gulf of Mexico!

What I found shocking was that some top names in the industry turn out to be people known to shoot from the hip, relying on second rate technology and engineering, while always turning to others for help; being at best late arrivals and fast followers, depending on ‘off the shelf go buys.’

The most expensive errors that are concealed from the public are the environmental ones that the author writes about at length.

While the world remains inclined to continue focusing primarily on the price fluctuations of oil that can and have devastated many an economy, this remains a squalid story and also one of power play played to extreme.

The Guardian – yet another favourite of mine – described it as a ‘forensic demolition job.’



The psycho drama of the World Cup

Those like yours truly who have over the years supported England during the World Cup – more by default than by design since I have always preferred Club football to national team soccer – must have found comfort in the fact that both Italian and England supporters had a relatively calm and relaxed enjoyment of the final phases of the World Cup since we got knocked out rather early on and were thus allowed to enjoy the benefits of some far more rewarding soccer in a more detached manner.

But apart from being struck by the shifting emotions and the sometimes patchy and often brilliant displays of soccer that we were offered (accompanied by some erratic refereeing), I was impressed above all by the psycho drama of the World Cup even among some of my closest friends and acquaintances.

Someone who supports Italy told me that ‘we’ can easily afford to lose since we have una pancia piena. Earlier on he told me Italy faced a win-win situation. If they won the Cup it would be another feather in their cap. If England won, it would be thanks to an Italian coach.

When England won their only match of the Cup, I got a text message saying ‘Grande Capello’. When England lost I was reminded Bye, Bye England. When Capello got reconfirmed as coach in spite of England’s disastrous result, I was reminded that the Brits could simply not do without an Italian coach of his calibre.

Another friend of mine who roots for England was hoping that the Brits would come a cropper at the earliest possible, since he could not accept the fact that England had to end up ‘lumped’ with an Italian coach. Another strong Italian supporter – quite a prominent public figure really – told me that he was rooting for England, since he could not stand Lippi because of his Juve ties and had full sympathy for Capello since he was once on the verge of joining ‘his’ club. Ironically he does not support Milan AC. On the contrary!

For once the British press managed to adopt a cynical approach to their dismal performance. While on the day proper of the match with Germany they resorted to their traditional Churchillian language, the day after they were busy taking the Mickey out of themselves, by claiming that if the Brits had performed that way during WWII, by now everyone in Britain would be speaking German!

A friend of mine and a usually very clinical and dispassionate one at that told me that for him the World Cup began and ended with England’s participation. He must then have sacrificed some really good football for his sins which must be considerable once he settled for this fatalistic option.

I guess those friends of mine who support Juventus took it best in their stride. After such a dismal league performance, Italy’s lacklustre showing was not that much of a let down by comparison. Although the Brazil match which featured some Juve stars showed that their players can be equally erratic even when playing in their national team too. Incidentally in Italy I tend to prefer Juventus from the rest. Always in relative terms...

I had to miss the England-Germany match since I happened to be travelling at the time. Some argued – good for you. Little did they realize that by the time the aircraft landed as part of my transit journey to Innsbruck on parliamentary business, I had just found myself at Frankfurt airport where celebrations were in full swing even among staffers there.

As in politics, this World Cup has shown that critics, analysts and pollsters are quite often and frequently proven wrong. Although to be fair I know of an eminent politician in the PL who would have become rich so far had he been a punter!! But other responsibilities lie ahead...

While everyone was predicting an almost all Latin American set of semi-finals on the contrary Europe has bounced back with a certain resilience so much so that there is only one Latin American team left. One of the least favourites to star has been the excellent former Man Utd player Forlan, who showed how football should be played to a number of other big names who hardly put a foot right or to be more precise, who failed to find the net – think Rooney, Messi, Ronaldo, Torres among others.

As I commented on Facebook, it is good to see the euro zone bounce back in the soccer arena. Let us hope it does the same in economic terms!

I would have thought that all these mates of mine about whom I have commented wryly, might have made excellent patients for Minister Joe Cassar in his pre-ministerial profession, but having exchanged some views on the subject with him during the Italian National Day, I have my doubts whether he would have been spared the couch too!

Meanwhile let us all look forward to an interesting World Cup Final come next Sunday. Hopefully an all European one. Without my sounding Euro centric or nationalistic.

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